Exponential Modeling

1. The population of the Russia in 1998 was 147 million; the population of Nigeria was 106 million.  Russia is decreasing in population by approximately 0.1% annually; the population of Nigeria is growing at 3%.  Using Excel, predict the year when Nigeria's population will exceed Russia's, assuming that the current trend continues.  How much faith do you have in your answer? What factors could affect the validity of your prediction?

2.  World oil production was 518 million tons in 1950.  Between 1950 and 1972, production increased at a rate of 7% per year.  World oil production in 1998 was approximately 3300 million tons.

a.  Using the information above, estimate the world oil production in 1972?

b.  Using the result of part a, determine how much oil would have been produced in 1998 if growth in production had continued at a rate of 7% between 1972 and 1998.  Compare this result to the actual 1998 figure given above.

c.  Using the result of part a, determine how much oil would have been produced in 1998 if growth in production had proceeded at a rate of 3% between 1972 and 1998.  Compare this result to the actual 1998 figure given above.

d.  Using your answer from part a, estimate the actual annual growth rate in world oil production between 1972 and 1998.